Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Tanda2 property bubble?

(sumber : http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/mca-proposes-loan-cut-for-houses-more-than-rm500000/)

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 6 — The MCA today urged Bank Negara to consider limiting its proposal to cut housing loans by 10 per cent to those purchasing homes worth over RM500,000 in its efforts to curb speculation in the property market.


Its president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek said this would help to ensure that those in the lower and middle-income groups would still be able to afford to own houses.



“Bank Negara's proposal to cut housing loans by 10 per cent from the current cap of 90 per cent to avert the risk of a potential property bubble should only be imposed on houses that cost over RM500,000.


“To ensure that the low and middle-income groups can afford to own houses, house buyers who purchase houses below RM500,000 should be allowed to flexibly choose whether to take the proposed 80 per cent or the original 90 per cent loans,” he said in a statement this evening.



Dr Chua said a flexible loan cap based on house prices would be better in protecting house buyers.



“It would better protect the benefit of such buyers although the proposed loan cap will help in stabilising house prices especially in some parts of the Klang Valley and in Penang,” he said.



He urged Bank Negara to first conduct a thorough study on the impact of its proposal before implementing the loan cut.



“This is to ensure there is a healthy growth in the housing industry,” he said.



It was reported on September 2 that the central bank was engaging with other banks on the possibility of measures to curb excessive speculation on property prices.



It was suggested that the central bank cap the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) for mortgages at 80 per cent. At present, most banks allow loans of up to 90 per cent of the value of the property.



Several groups have however voiced concerns over such a move, pointing out that it would only discourage Malaysians from buying houses as many would find it difficult to fork out a downpayment of 20 per cent of the property's value.




(Harga market untuk rumah2 baru sekarang semakin mengarut...terlalu tinggi untuk dibeli oleh golongan average kat Malaysia ni...Rumah landed intermediate pon dah cecah rm500k...yang beli rumah rm500k tu expect nak jual berapa plak? rm700k? Sapa yang nak beli? Kalau amik loan 500k, installment bulan2 pon dah cecah rm2k...cuba kaji balik berapa ramai golongan pekerja kat malaysia ni yang mampu nak bayar installment rm2k sebulan untuk rumah? Semakin lama target market yang akan mampu membeli rumah2 mahal ni semakin berkurangan. Last2 nanti supply exceed demand, haa time tu menganga je la sapa yang masuk lewat dalam frenzy ni...tergolek2 la korang..)





18 comments:

Anonymous said...

apa pelabur2 hartanah patut buat skrang nie......? terus beli/invest kat hartanah, jual hartanah, atau maintain hartanah yg dah ada dan invest kat tempat lain......? apa pendapat brader mdizone....?

najmi said...

maaf ek...saya nk bg pendapat je...bagi saya ada baik....kita hold dulu beberapa hartanah yg berpotensi tinggi utk buat profit walaupn berlaku kejatuhan...yg nampak mcm x bole survive let go je dulu...duit lebih buat pelaburan lain...mcm emas ke....unit trust ke...atau pn yg paling terkini melabur dalam hartanah pelancongan

mdizone said...

Wah susah nak cakap sebab saya bukan pakar dalam bidang prediction market hartanah...Saya cuma pelabur kecil sahaja..

Cuma apa yang saya boleh bagi pandangan, berhati2 dengan pelaburan hartanah pada ketika ini (actually sepanjang masa kena berhati2, jangan terburu2 atau mengikut "herd")..kalau nak invest, invest for cashflow ( sewa bulan2 cover installment walaupun interest rate naik)...kalau nak invest untuk jual balik, pastikan kalau bad things happen, kita tak tergugat (contoh macam dah beli rumah mahal n budget nak jual, tiba2 harga jatuh). Kalau perkara tu berlaku, pastikan kita ada backup plan...

Yang penting, invest dengan ilmu dan bukan dengar cakap2 orang sahaja...kalau orang kata hartanah akan sentiasa naik harganya, berhati2lah...banyak perkara yang effect harga hartanah antaranya interest rate, supply n demand, inflation rate etc..

Najmi : boleh xplain apa maksud pelaburan hartanah pelancongan? macam style homestay tu ke?

Matjoe said...

kat kinrara 2 sotry teres pun rm680k. bapak mahal gilerrr. developer mmg bikin untung gila2 punyer laa. kenyang smpi buncit

bagus, bai developer lapor balik. mmg hagr dieroang x masuk akal

Pencinta Makanan said...

setuju ngan matjoe..harga tak igt dunia...yg pelik soldout je...kaya tol org2 mesia nih... :D

Unknown said...

be prepared... kalau betul2 jadi sapa2 yang ada duit boleh beli secara borong... sebab kalau market jatuh pun pasti dia akan naik balik...

mdizone said...

yezza wakif...everything that goes up ,will come down..and vice versa....

yang penting , invest dengan ilmu bukan dengan nafsu...

tapi pelik gak la, developer letak harga cemana pn, ada gak orang boleh beli? pendapatan average rakyat malaysia ni dah meningkat ke? atau disebabkan easy access to loan facility sahaja?

gile betul la kalau installment bulanan rumah teres sampai rm2k...sapa yang mampu bayar? bape peratus rakyat malaysia yang jd manager bergaji rm5k ke atas? itu pun tak include liabiliti lain macam kereta, credit card etc...

rasanya ramai yang buat joint loan dengan partner pastu ikat sampai 40 tahun..sampai ke tua la jadi hamba bank nak bayar rumah 'idaman'...pastu expect harga akan sentiasa naik...

sebijik macam fenomena sub prime crisis kat US tu...

Jangan lupa pepatah ni :

" bull n bear makes money, the sheeps get slaughtered"

Anonymous said...

Sekadar berkongsi data from Melbourne...1965 till 2010 (quoted from forumer in lowyat property thread, refer there for graph and other info):

"1. Salary grew 20-fold.
2. Property prices grew 50-fold.
3. Largest drop in prop prices is less than 10% YOY in 2008. And that was after price increased around 20% in 2007. And in 2009 prices jump another 30%.

Bet those who were listening to naysayers in Melbourne and waited to buy props............... must be damn pissed today."

Di Malaysia dulu orang rasa rumah teres 200 ribu mahal, sekarang orang rasa 200 ribu berpatutan :)

Anonymous said...

Malaysia and US are totally different, I don't think Malaysia will be facing sub-prime crisis like the US ..YET!

If you talking about China..yes there is possibility...this is Malaysia..it is normal for developing countries to face an huge increase in real estate price..

If you have the capacity..then buy..I'm pretty sure it'll go up (of course I'm talking about prime areas)

Anonymous said...

Maaf..tumpang lalu...

Tak salah ada loan rumah 40 tahun ke, 80 tahun ke, 100 tahun ke...

Loan rumah pengiraan bukan macam loan kereta (hire purchase)...buat la loan selama mungkin...this is for good cash flow due to low monthly commitment..kalau dah nak bayar cepat..just buat prepayment...

Kena ingat bukan semua orang buat loan panjang tu takde duit..my 2 cents

quicky said...

kalo nk duduk sendiri tu mesti la pk bile nk abiskn loan tu...ikat la pjg2 pon xpe kena la setkn target nk setelkn bile...nak2 kalo die nk invest lg..kalo amek loan pendek kan da menjerat tuk invest..bank tgk komitment da tinggi..baya bulan2 sampai 2k...bank pon tanak NPL

mdizone said...

as i said...invest dengan ilmu...nk ikat panjang ke nak ikat pendek ke, terpulang pada strategi masing2...at the end, kalau berlaku perkara yang tak diingini, sendiri tanggung...kalau untung besar pun, sendiri makan...

aku sendiri pon ikat loan sepanjang yang mungkin...pasal bukan aku yang dok bayar installment bulan2 tu...orang lain tolong bayarkan..(thank you very much to my wonderful tenants)..

part yang aku concern ialah bila orang ikat loan selama mungkin sbb nak memiliki rumah idaman...hentam loan sepanjang mungkin sbb nak installment rendah...padahal installment rendah tu pon terpaksa buat joint application sbb gaji tak cukup besar...pastu bila beli rumah, base on "orang2 cakap" yang kawasan tu akan membangun etc, highway nak naik, ada shopping mall baru bla bla bla...totally base on speculation...

Pada aku tak salah nak speculate...tu hak masing2...risiko masing2 tanggung..cuma aku concern sbb buyer tu invest tanpa ilmu tapi dengar cakap2 orang...tu yang aku risau...dia tak sedar dengan apa yang dia buat...aku terpanggil nak bersuara sebab ramai kawan2 aku yang buat benda ni...bila ada problem, baru nak pening kepala...

Anonymous said...

Memang betul ilmu tu penting...and betul ramai tak buat research secukupnya sebelum beli rumah...contohnya beli kat nilai semi-d 500 ribu expect harga naik dalam masa terdekat...of coz possible tapi probability rendah..

Tapi aku still rasa dari derang habiskan duit beli kereta atau mende lain yg melebihi kemampuan and jugak liabiliti..elok la beli rumah yang melebihi kemampuan...kalau dekat klang valley nih..susah nak rugi..nasib kalau baik..rumah naik harga hehehe

mdizone said...

Bagus betul posting kali ni...banyak diskusi yang bernas...seronok2..

Anon, pandangan ko tidak salah...ada betulnya juga...

cuma kan lebih baik, dari buat pelaburan membuta tuli, tingkatkan ilmu dulu...duit yang banyak tu letak kat tempat yang selamat dulu, jangan beli liabiliti...biarkan je duit tu rest kat situ sblm datang peluang utk pelaburan...kalau emosi tak stabil bila nampak duit banyak n terasa nak spend duit tu beli liabiliti, rasanya foundation untuk buat pelaburan pon tak kukuh lagi tu...better train emosi tu dulu supaya tenang sblm start investing...

bayangkan, dengan emosi yang tidak stabil, pastu buat keputusan pelaburan (cth : beli rumah 500k) dengan hanya berdasarkan desas desus, ikut cakap kawan2 tanpa usul periksa, kan agak membinasakan...kalau mmg rumah harga naik sepanjang masa, bagus la...kalau harga rumah tak naik, atau naik sedikit sahaja atau lebih malang harga jatuh pula ,ada backup plan untuk mengatasinya?

seeloknya, prepare for the worst, and u will only know the best..

this is my 2 cent...

rumet said...

orang mesia mmg banyak duit.. tapi malangnya majority bukan bangsa kita la...

kalau tgk unit trust yang zero risk macam ASW dengan ASD... quota non bumi kejap je boleh habes.. derang dah tade tempat lain nak invest... derang beli la rumah2 prime area ni... developer letak harga berapa pon derang berani beli... they have nothing to lose...

Anonymous said...

Rumah nih yg penting lokasi...malangnya ramai org kita pentingkan saiz...nak semi-d..banglo...orang cina sebagainya pentingkan lokasi...lain mindset

Harao org2 go for location first..dah tua kang beli la besar mana pun untuk own stay

Anonymous said...

waa.. byk gak komen psal prop buble ni eh.. lokasi eh? harga prop kat area Klg valley mmg nek mencanak da la.. kalo nk murah pn area cm rawang tu.. hmm.. agak2 interest nek lg ke for the next year? kalo nek, sape yg beli n wat loan banyak saket la.. harap backup duit dr tennant je.. fuhh

mdizone said...

Kalau beli rumah n tenant yang bayar, pasti margin positiva cashlow banyak, iallah tak perlu risau sangat...

yang patut risau ialah orang2 yang beli rumah untuk duduk sendiri, installment semaksima mungkin siap pakai nama spouse utk support, pastu tiap2 bulan punya cashflow manjang negative, credit card tak pernah bayar habis...haa ni mmg tunggu time meletup je la ni...

so better be prepared...

to me personal finance punya foundation mesti strong dulu..then baru la pk nak start invest ke apa...

kalau income besar, beli rumah sebanyak mana pun takde hal punya...selamba je nak support...tu mmg game bangsa2 lain la...duit banyak from bisnes, taktau nak park mana...diorang tibai la beli property tak kira harga...kalau something bad happen pun diorang tade hal nak cover...sbb duit banyak sangat from other sources...